Early Voting Shows Momentum for Democratic Candidates Up and Down the Ballot

Nov 4 • 554 Views • View Comments

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Americans across the country are jumping at the opportunity to vote early for Hillary Clinton, Tim Kaine, and Democrats up and down the ballot. ​With early vote locations now open in most states, more ballots are being cast ahead of Election Day than ever before. In fact, over ​35 million people have already voted​– and in key states like, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, we’ve seen especially high turnout in Democratic counties. Here’s what people are saying:

Washington Post: John Wagner, Anne Gearan and Jose A. DelReal: Early voting by Latinos may help Clinton in several states

Even as the electoral map shows new signs of volatility, a surge in early voting by Latinos is bolstering Hillary Clinton’s prospects in battleground states including Arizona, Florida and Nevada in the closing days of a tightened race against Donald Trump. Fresh election data suggest that the Democratic nominee appears to be benefiting from upticks in participation by Latinos, who historically vote in lower numbers than the electorate overall…In Florida, more Latinos had voted early as of Wednesday than did so during the entire early voting period in 2012, according to the Clinton campaign.

Vox: Matthew Yglesias: Early voting in Nevada looks very good for Democrats

Polls of Nevada show it evenly divided between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but Jon Ralston, the longtime dean of Nevada political journalism, has been keeping tabs on the state’s early voting and concludes that “if Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don’t dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can’t lose Nevada.”…Ralston further concludes based on this that “congressional seats are almost gone for the GOP” in the state.

New York Times: Nate Cohn: Early Vote in North Carolina Seems Consistent With a Clinton Lead

North Carolina has become perhaps the most important state in the election. It has the potential to decide the Senate and the presidency. Hillary Clinton has led every live-interview survey conducted there since the first presidential debate, even though Mitt Romney won it four years ago. She has a comfortable lead in the surveys taken after the third presidential debate, with Upshot/Siena, NBC/Marist, Quinnipiac, Monmouth and Elon polls showing her ahead by an average of four points. It’s also a state where the election is well underway. Nearly two million voters — perhaps 40 percent of the electorate — have already cast ballots, and the data from early voting suggests that she has banked a considerable lead. The same data implies that pre-election polls are largely right about the composition of the North Carolina electorate.

Washington Post: Brian Schaffner and Anthony Rentsch: Early voting predict who wins. This is good news for Democrats.

Early voting is underway in many states, and things seem to look good for Democrats. CNN suggests that Democrats have improved their standing in Arizona and Nevada, compared with 2012. Democrats also are voting at high rates in the key battlegrounds of Florida and North Carolina, according to news reports. The New York Times is estimating the November vote in North Carolina, using the early vote totals and other information. That model predicts a Hillary Clinton victory…Taken together with the polls, the numbers this year do indeed bode well for Clinton.

ABC News: Meghan Keneally: Candidates Vie for Latinos as Early Voting Up in Fla.

Hispanic voters could influence this presidential election more than previous campaigns, with early voting in at least one state suggesting they are heading to the polls at a higher rate than four years ago. “Hispanics are energized and they are voting early like they have never voted early before in Florida, and it’s hard to say that’s not a positive energy; probably for Hillary Clinton,” University of Florida professor Dan Smith told ABC News today. The stepped-up voting comes as Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Tim Kaine held an event today in Phoenix, Arizona, entirely in Spanish, making it clear the campaign will actively court Hispanic voters to the very end. Early-voting numbers broken down by race or ethnicity are not publicly available in each state, including some of those that have the largest Hispanic populations, like California, Texas, Arizona or Nevada.

FiveThirtyEight: Harry Enton: The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There

Still, many more Democrats than Republicans have voted in early balloting. Through early Tuesday, 43 percent of early and absentee votes have been cast by registered Democrats and just 37 percent have been cast by registered Republicans. Democrats have a lead in the number of raw votes of greater than 30,000 out of more than 500,000 votes cast, which is about 50 percent of all votes cast in the 2012 presidential election.

Slate: Osita Nwanevu: Millions of Americans Have Already Voted. So Who’s Winning?

Of all the swing states, the Democrats have the most cause for celebration in Nevada, where they lead Republicans in early votes cast as of Monday by 6.6 percentage points—43.2 percent of early votes have come from Democrats compared with 36.6 percent from registered Republicans and 20.2 percent that are listed as “other.” As analyst Jon Ralston said on Monday morning, 60 percent of Nevada voters are expected to vote before Election Day—31 percent have voted already—making the Democrats’ lead in ballots cast a bad sign for TrumpClinton also appears to have the edge in North Carolina according to the Upshot’s analysis of the state’s early vote data…As of Monday in Colorado, Democrats are leading Republicans 331,153 to 300,275 in ballots cast, while unaffiliated voters have submitted 223,540 ballots. Democrats have led since early voting started in mid-October, which is good news for Clinton.

NBC News: Hannah Hartig and John Lapinski: One Week Before Election Day, Early Voting Is Nearly Twice as High as 2012

Similarly, in Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, Democratic-affiliated voters also voted at higher rates than Republican-affiliated voters in 2012 a week ahead of the Election and are continuing this trend in 2016. In Colorado, Michigan and Virginia, things look quite different from this year’s vantage point than they did in 2012. In 2012, Republican -affiliated voters outpaced Democrats in Colorado and Virginia by 3-point margins and a 13-point margin in Michigan. This year, Democratic-affiliated voters are outpacing Republicans by 3 points in Colorado and Michigan, and by 13 points in Virginia.

Baltimore Sun: Luke Broadwater: Early voting turnout continues to climb headed into final day

As of Thursday afternoon, more than 800,000 Marylanders have cast ballots in the hotly contested presidential race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump — well more than the 430,500 Marylanders who took advantage of early voting during the last presidential election in 2012. Democrats — who outnumber Republicans in Maryland 2 to 1 — have turned out for early voting at an even greater rate. About three times as many Democrats have voted to date. Opinion polls have showed a large lead for Clinton among Maryland voters.

Boston Globe: Martha Schick and Jaclyn Reiss: Boston sees record turnout Wednesday for early voting

Unseasonably warm weather and plenty of sunshine Wednesday drew out a record turnout of early voters at Boston City Hall. More than 2,000 people had voted as of 7:30 p.m., and city election officials were anticipating “a new record for City Hall,” Bonnie McGilpin, a spokeswoman for Mayor Martin J. Walsh, wrote in an e-mail….Early voting has been a success in Boston, where polling places have opened each day at 9 a.m. since Oct. 24. As of Tuesday, a total of 33,388 people had voted early, McGilpin said. Early voting across Massachusetts started Oct. 24, and continues through Friday. A state law approved in 2014 updated the state’s election laws to allow voters to cast ballots up to 11 days before Election Day, which will be Tuesday.

San Francisco Chronicle: John Wildermuth: California Democrats improve on 2012 showing in early vote

Early-voting Democrats could be the key in some of the state’s most fiercely contested congressional races, new vote-by-mail statistics show. More than 3.7 million Californians already have voted in Tuesday’s election, with hundreds of thousands more mail ballots expected to arrive at county election offices over the next few days. And in the handful of toss-up congressional contests across the state, more and more of those ballots are coming from Democrats. All around the state, we’re seeing an underperformance by Republicans (in early voting) compared to 2012,” said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which provides information on voters and voting to both Republican and Democratic campaigns. “Vote-by-mail means higher turnout … and it looks like Democrats are getting out more of (those voters) than in the past.”

Houston Chronicle: Rebecca Elliott and Matt Dempsey: Democrats outnumber Republicans in Harris County early voting

Democratic presidential primary voters outnumbered their Republican counterparts at Harris County’s polls last week, potentially providing Hillary Clinton and down-ballot Democrats a vote cushion heading into Election Day. More than a quarter of Harris County’s 2.2 million registered voters cast a ballot in-person or by mail last week, a 36 percent increase from 2012 and part of a statewide surge in early voting…Texas – which does not register voters by party affiliation – is braced for a closer presidential race than the state has seen in decades, with vast potential consequences in local races. In Harris County, a poll released two weeks ago showed Clinton leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by 7 percentage points.

Chicago Tribune: Tribune news services: Early voting: Tighter race, but still good signs for Hillary Clinton

Still, the tens of millions of early votes cast also point to strength from Democratic-leaning Latino voters, potentially giving Clinton a significant advantage in Nevada and Colorado. With more than half the votes already cast in those states, Democrats are matching if not exceeding their successful 2012 pace, according to data compiled by The Associated Press.

Contact: DNC Press, 202-863-8148

 

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