Majority of Likely Voters in CD 16 Approve of Trump
The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of likely voters that reveals incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan in the lead for the upcoming U.S. House of Representatives race in Florida’s Congressional District 16, with David Shapiro close behind. The survey also shows that a majority of likely voters in Florida’s CD 16 approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president.
The poll, comprised of Florida’s Congressional District 16 likely voters, shows that 49 percent of respondents plan to vote for Buchanan, the Republican candidate, in the upcoming election for U.S. House of Representatives in Florida’s CD 16, while 40 percent plan to vote for the Democratic candidate, David Shapiro.
Of those likely voters, 11 percent don’t know who their choice will be. Eighty-two percent of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Buchanan, while 8 percent indicate they’ll vote for Shapiro. Eleven percent don’t know. Among Democrats, 7 percent indicate they plan to vote for Buchanan and 83 percent for Shapiro; 9 percent don’t know where they’ll cast their vote. For non-party affiliations and alternative party candidates, Shapiro holds a 9-percentage point lead.
“This historically strong Republican district is closer than it should be,” said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. “In 2016, Buchanan won by almost 20 points, so the fact that this race is within shouting distance for Democrats should give Republicans real concerns when it comes to keeping control of the House of Representatives.”
Additionally, 54 percent of likely voters approve of the job that Trump is doing as president, and 45 percent disapprove. Eighty-six percent of Republican likely voters approve of Trump, while 14 percent disapprove. Among Democrats, 12 percent approve of Trump’s job performance and 89 percent disapprove.
When asked about the most important problem in the district, environment (22 percent) led the way, followed closely by health care and immigration with 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Among Republicans, immigration led as the most important problem in the district at 22 percent, followed by environment at 20 percent. Health care was the most important problem among Democrats (27 percent) followed by environment at 24 percent.
Regarding the recent red tide algae blooms and the environment in general, when asked who they thought would do a better job as congressman on those issues, 40 percent said Buchanan and 37 percent said Shapiro, while 21 percent didn’t know. Among Republican likely voters, 67 percent said Buchanan and 11 percent said Shapiro. Twenty-one percent didn’t know who would do a better job. Of Democratic likely voters, 7 percent believe Buchanan would do a better job, 76 percent indicated Shapiro and 17 percent didn’t know.
“The red tide is impacting a lot of the Florida coast, perhaps nowhere more than this area,” Binder noted. “Voters are concerned; this issue is on their minds and driving their votes.”
For details about the methodology of the survey and additional crosstabs by partisanship, sex, education, race and age, click here.
