Consumer sentiment among Floridians increased [Read more…] about Floridian sentiment continues upward tick for fifth month
Consumer Sentiment
Mixed consumer sentiment in December with encouraging prospects for 2024
Consumer sentiment in Florida inched up [Read more…] about Mixed consumer sentiment in December with encouraging prospects for 2024
Floridian consumer sentiment retreats as perceptions of personal economic conditions decline
Consumer sentiment in Florida dropped 1.2 points [Read more…] about Floridian consumer sentiment retreats as perceptions of personal economic conditions decline
Favorable economic conditions fuel near-record consumer sentiment in April
Consumer sentiment in Florida reached its highest level in 17 years, increasing 1.4 points in April to 102 from a revised figure of 100.6 in March. [Read more…] about Favorable economic conditions fuel near-record consumer sentiment in April
Consumer sentiment rebounds to near-record levels in February
Consumer sentiment among Floridians increased 2.8 points in February to 100.9 from a revised figure of 98.1 in January. Similarly, the University of Michigan’s nationwide index of consumer sentiment increased in February. [Read more…] about Consumer sentiment rebounds to near-record levels in February
Florida consumer sentiment decreases in June
Consumer sentiment among Floridians dropped 1.9 points in June to 98.3 from a revised figure of 100.2 in May, according to the latest University of Florida Consumer Survey. [Read more…] about Florida consumer sentiment decreases in June
Florida consumer sentiment down slightly in August
Consumer sentiment among Floridians dropped 1.2 points in August to 96.5. Among the five components that make up the index, one increased and four decreased.
Respondents’ overall views of their personal financial situation now compared with a year ago ticked down one-tenth of a point, from 88.2 to 88.1; however, there was a split by gender, with the reading rising 4.8 points for men but dropping 4.7 points for women.
Opinions about whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket household item such as an appliance dropped one-tenth of a point, from 102.8 to 102.7.
“In the last two months, July and August, Floridians’ perceptions of present economic conditions shifted slightly downward; nonetheless, they remained 2.6 points higher than the average over the last 12 months,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Expectations of personal finances a year from now increased two points, from 103.8 to 105.8. Anticipated U.S. economic conditions over the next year decreased 1.8 points, from 98.1 to 96.3. Expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years showed the largest drop of any reading this month, falling 6.1 points from 95.8 to 89.7. These three components indicate opinions about future economic conditions.
“Most of the pessimism in August stems from negative expectations regarding the national economic conditions in the long run. It might be the case that consumers remember their experience a decade ago when the earliest signs of a weakening economy began to appear, and they may be expecting a repeat of the cycle. This may be reflected in the latest trends of the three ‘expectations’ components of the index,” Sandoval said.
Sandoval noted that despite the overall decline in the index, people 60 and older consistently reported very high consumer sentiment. “In particular, they hold positive views regarding their personal financial situation compared with a year ago and are very optimistic about their personal finances in the short-run,” Sandoval said.
He added, “Those with income under $50,000, however, reported negative perceptions and very unfavorable expectations. In fact, most of the pessimism came from those with income under $50,000, who held unfavorable expectations about the national economic conditions in the short and long run.”
Various reports indicate that both the U.S. and Florida’s economies are performing well and their prospects for 2018 remain good. In Florida, jobs have been added on a monthly basis over the last seven years. Florida’s job gains were led by construction, education and health services, and professional and business services industries.
In July, the unemployment rate in Florida remained unchanged from June at 4.1 percent. That number is particularly significant because an unemployment rate around 4 percent is considered to reflect a full-employment economy.
“Despite the positive economic signals, particularly in the labor market, consumer opinions in the short run may be affected by uncertainty around federal fiscal policy with talk of major changes to the tax code and a possible government shutdown,” Sandoval said.
Conducted Aug. 1-24, the UF study reflects the responses of 403 individuals who were reached on cellphones, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.
Details of this month’s survey can be found at http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/csi-data.
Florida consumer sentiment continues downward slide
Consumer sentiment among Floridians dropped in May for the second month in a row, falling 2.4 points to 93.3 from a revised April reading of 95.7.
Among the five components that make up the index, one increased and four decreased.
“Most of the pessimism in May stems from perceptions about the current economic conditions,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Perceptions of one’s personal financial situation now compared with a year ago showed the biggest drop, falling 5.9 points from 91 to 85.1. May’s less-positive outlook was shared by all Floridians across age, gender and income groups.
Opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a major household item such as an appliance declined two points, from 101.7 to 99.7. However, there were increases among those 60 and older and those with income under $50,000.
Expectations of personal finances a year from now dropped 5.2 points from 105.1 to 99.9. Expectations for the U.S. economy were mixed: Anticipated conditions over the next year decreased one-tenth of a point, from 92.8 to 92.7 while expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased nine-tenths of a point, from 88.1 to 89.
These three components represent expectations about what lies ahead economically speaking.
“Readings about future economic conditions have shown important signs of deterioration for the past two months. However, in contrast to April, this month’s unfavorable expectations are accompanied by a significant decline in perceptions of present conditions. It seems unlikely that consumers are delaying the purchase of big household items, as they hold unfavorable future expectations as well,” Sandoval said.
According to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Florida’s gross domestic product growth rate ranked fifth of all states in 2016, with an annual growth rate of 3 percent. The sector contributing the most to the Florida economy in 2016 was the professional, scientific and technical services sector, followed by the construction and information sectors.
Florida’s unemployment rate declined again in April by three-tenths of a percentage point to 4.5 percent. Compared with April of last year, the number of jobs added statewide was 215,400, a 2.6 percent increase. The industries gaining the most jobs were professional and business services, followed by trade, transportation and utilities.
“Florida’s economy keeps growing, and the labor market conditions continue to be favorable in general, with more jobs added every month for the past six years. However, consumer sentiment seems to be slowly decreasing after surging in March to its highest level in the last 15 years. If this pessimism persists in the following months, this might indicate a significant change in the trend of consumer sentiment,” Sandoval said.
Conducted May 1-24, the UF study reflects the responses of 415 individuals who were reached on cellphones, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.
Details of this month’s survey can be found at http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/csi-data.
Writer: Colleen Porter, [email protected]
Florida consumer sentiment in February drops from record high
After three months of positive gains, consumer sentiment among Floridians fell 3.3 points in February to 94.0, according to the latest University of Florida consumer survey.
The pattern in Florida is similar to consumer sentiment at the national level, which also dropped 2.2 points in February to 96.3 from January’s record 98.5 according to the University of Michigan’s survey of consumers.
“While readings about current economic conditions increased slightly, expectations for the future decreased sharply among Floridians in February,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Floridians’ perceptions of their personal financial situation now compared with a year ago ticked up six-tenths of a point this month, from 87.7 to 88.3. Opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket household item such as an appliance inched up seven-tenths of a point, from 100.7 to 101.4.
“The increase in these two components reflects that current economic conditions have improved in general among Floridians. These perceptions are particularly strong among men, those 60 and older and those with income levels over $50,000,” Sandoval said.
However, all three components that ask about future economic conditions showed a marked decrease. Expectations of personal finances a year from now showed the greatest decline in this month’s reading, dropping 6.6 points from 106.0 to 99.4.
Opinions about the national economy were also negative: Expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next year decreased 5.2 points, from 96.8 to 91.6. Anticipated U.S. economic conditions over the next five years fell from 95.1 to 89.3, a 5.8-point drop.
“Expectations about future economic conditions increased between November and December of last year, but have declined since then. Floridians are pessimistic about their future personal finances independent of their socioeconomic and demographic status. The greatest declines in perceptions about the national economy were among women, those under age 60 and those with annual income above $50,000,” Sandoval said.
Until September 2016, the current economic conditions components and the future expectations components moved together in tandem. But from September 2016 until February 2017, the future expectations components went up faster and stayed above the components reflecting current conditions.
“Expectations about the U.S. economy improved greatly before and right after the presidential election, perhaps because the population was optimistic about the incoming administration,” Sandoval said. “However, these expectations are turning pessimistic in February and the gap between the present perceptions and future expectations has disappeared.”
Overall, economic activity has expanded and the labor market continued to strengthen in the U.S. As a result, earlier this month the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the benchmark overnight lending rate target at a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent.
In recent months, Florida job gains have remained strong and the unemployment rate has remained low, reflecting the state’s positive economic environment.
Economists look to consumer sentiment as an early signal of future conditions, because confidence among consumers leads to spending and consumption. “High levels of confidence are important to keep the economy growing,” Sandoval said. “The next few months will be key to assessing the potential economic outlook for the following years.”
Conducted Feb. 1-23, the UF study reflects the responses of 489 individuals who were reached on cellphones, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.
Details of this month’s survey can be found at http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/csi-data.
Writer: Colleen Porter, [email protected]
Florida consumer sentiment continues upward climb
Consumer sentiment among Floridians in January ticked up another one-half point to 97.8 — the highest reading since March 2002 — from December’s record-breaking revised figure of 97.3, according to the latest University of Florida consumer survey.
Florida’s upward trend also tracks the national figures released last week by the University of Michigan, with the national consumer sentiment index at the highest level since February 2004.
Of the five components that make up the Florida index, three increased and two decreased.
Perceptions of one’s personal financial situation now compared with a year ago showed the greatest increase, rising 5.4 points from 82.8 to 88.2. With the exception of those 60 and older, this view is shared by all Floridians.
Opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket household item such as an appliance increased slightly from 101.2 to 102.3.
“Perceptions of current conditions improved among Floridians in the last month as a result of the positive economic picture that prevailed in the state during the last year,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Floridians are optimistic about their own finances. The recent surge in the level of confidence comes from perceptions and expectations about Floridians’ individual financial situations.”
Expectations of personal finances a year from now rose 2.5 points, from 103.9 to 106.4. However, views on the future of the national economy were gloomier: Expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next year dropped 3.3 points, from 99.9 to 96.6, while anticipated U.S. economic conditions over the next five years decreased 2.7 points from 98.5 to 95.8.
Economic data in Florida continue to be generally positive. Although the December unemployment rate in Florida remained at 4.9 percent, the number of jobs added last year statewide was 251,400—a 3.1 percent increase compared with a year ago. The industry sector gaining most jobs was leisure and hospitality, followed by education and health services, then professional and business services.
“There is no doubt that the state’s economy is in better shape than it was several years ago,” Sandoval said. “However, both short- and long-run expectations about the national economic situation are pessimistic, particularly over the next year. These negative expectations are shared by most Floridians but are strongest among those with income under $50,000. These expectations may reflect uncertainty associated with the upcoming economic policy changes by the new U.S. administration. The next few months will be key to understanding these changes and assessing their potential impact on the economy.”
Conducted Jan. 1-26, the UF study reflects the responses of 449 individuals who were reached on cellphones, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.
Details of this month’s survey can be found at http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/csi-data.
Writer: Colleen Porter, [email protected]
