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Florida Associations Pump $3.7 Billion Into Florida's Economy

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Florida Associations Have $3.7 Billion Impact on Florida According to
New Research Released by the Florida Society of Association Executives

The Florida Society of Association Executives (FSAE) today announced Florida’s 1,000 largest associations have a $3.7 billion impact on the Sunshine State. These associations directly employ 15,000 people, spending more than $778 million in employee payroll and supporting more than 88,000 jobs through expenditures according to the research produced by Downs & St. Germain Research and sponsored in part by Partners in Association Management.
“The economic impact of Florida’s associations is real and it’s powerful,” said FSAE Chair Vicki Long, CAE. “Whether in Tallahassee, Orlando or Miami, the fiscal impact of the not-for-profit sector on local business is huge and one that should be recognized statewide as a major component in the state’s economic engine.”
More than $75 million in property, payroll, sales and other taxes flow directly from Florida’s largest associations into local and state government coffers each year. Additionally, more than 4.12 million attendees provide sales and other tax revenue to the municipalities and counties hosting the associations’ 40,500+ meetings annually.
“In-person meetings are an essential part of association membership and culture,” said FSAE President/CEO Frank Rudd CAE, CMP. “Associations are established to bring industry businesses and professionals together to improve the professions they serve and set core standards to protect Florida’s consumers. From small in-person board and committee meetings to large educational conferences and events, the meetings that association members participate in not only help the associations, but have a direct impact on local businesses and economies.”
According to Long, “Through these interactions, and beyond the numbers, professional and trade associations provide cutting-edge face-to-face training and education to improve performance, establish and enforce ethical standards and advocate for efficient regulation that is sensitive to the real-world need of Florida’s businesses to thrive in the global marketplace.”
As of October 2017, the IRS reports 2,873 501(c)6 organizations are headquartered in Florida and filed a tax return in the last year. The travel industry is one of the major benefactors of Florida largest associations as more than 4.1 million association members and staff traveled to attend board meetings, committee meetings, conferences, conventions, trade shows and education programs in 2016. Attendees also purchased more than 850,000 airline tickets to travel to meetings in 2016 and made more than 1.2 million rental car reservations. Additionally, members and staff of Florida’s 1,000 largest associations spend more than 3.6 million nights in hotels over a one year period.
“Florida is a hotbed of association activity,” said Bennett Napier, M.S., CAE, President/CEO of Partners in Association Management. “The state has the third largest concentration of not-for-profit associations behind Washington, D.C., and Chicago. The direct and indirect economic impact of this important business sector is quite significant for the Sunshine State. We greatly appreciate the work of FSAE in conducting and publishing the research, and our company was honored to help support the effort.”

For more information on FSAE’s economic impact study, CLICK HERE.
About the Florida Society of Association Executives
The Florida Society of Association Executives (FSAE) fosters collaboration of association management professionals through networking and educational events, online communities and best-practice resources. With more than 1,100 members, FSAE has been serving the association industry throughout Florida for more than 55 years.

U.S. Forecast: Economic Health Hinges on Trump Administration’s Proposed Policies

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ORLANDO — If the Trump Administration’s proposed economic policies gain traction, the U.S. can expect faster economic growth and higher inflation, says University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith, but that’s a big “if” given the administration’s tumultuous first eight months.

“Tweeting and talking about policy is one thing,” said the director for the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the UCF College of Business, “being able to continue the regulatory roll back and move tax reform and infrastructure spending into legislative action is the key to accelerating economic growth and extending the life span of economic recovery.”

In his third quarterly national economic forecast of 2017, Snaith said to expect the Federal Reserve to call for another 25- basis-point hike this December and that future hikes will come at a faster pace during the next three years, with the federal funds rate hitting 3.25 percent by the end of the first quarter of 2020.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, which slowed to 1.5 percent in 2016, is forecasted to hit 2.3 percent in 2017 and 3.4 percent in 2018 before slipping to 3.1 percent in 2019 and 3 percent in 2020.

The odds of a recession in the final quarter of the year continue to decrease, according to the most recent release of the Survey of Professional Forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.  The 35 forecasters surveyed put a 10.46 percent chance that a decline in real GDP will occur in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Average monthly payroll employment growth has decelerated the past three years, and uncertainty and regulatory burden have been hindering payroll job growth, which slowed to 1.8 percent in 2016. The forecast shows payroll job growth slowing to 1.6 percent in 2017 before stabilizing at 1.5 percent for 2018-2020.

The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4 percent in early 2020, and job growth will be enough to keep up with labor force growth through the end of the forecast horizon. Underemployment, which has been a persistent problem in this recovery and stands at 8.6 percent as of August, also will continue to decline through 2020.

“Continued gains in employment, more rapidly rising wages and improving household balance sheets should continue to provide a solid foundation for continued consumer spending growth,” Snaith said. “Tax cuts and spending programs proposed by the Trump administration should also boost consumer spending growth.”

The forecast states the foreign sector will continue to be a drag on U.S. growth, as a stronger dollar and rising U.S. interest rates boost imports and depress exports. As a result, Snaith said, net exports will continue to fall through 2020.

The housing market, which continues to recover, is expected to slowly improve through 2020, even with rising interest rates. Housing starts are forecasted to rise from 1.24 million in 2017 to 1.63 million in 2020.

For the full forecast, visit:  https://issuu.com/ucfbusiness/docs/ucf-us-forecast-sept2017http://issuu.com/ucfbusiness/docs/ucf-us-forecast-september2016  

Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.

The Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses. Through these analyses, the institute provides valuable resources to the public and private sectors for informed decision-making.

CONTACT: Erika Hodges, College of Business, 407-823-3041 or [email protected]

About UCF College of Business 
Established in 1968, the UCF College of Business offers degrees at the bachelor’s, master’s, doctoral, and executive levels. All programs, as well as the Kenneth G. Dixon School of Accounting are accredited by AACSB International – the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business. The college provides high-quality academic programs designed to give students a competitive advantage in the world of business now and in the future. Learn more at business.ucf.edu

Zenaida Kotala

Associate Director

University of Central Florida, News & Information

407-823-6120

UCF Today: http://today.ucf.edu

After-hours media line: 407-823-5300

Florida Realtors® 2017 Real Estate Trends: Fla's Economy 'Outperformed' the U.S. Due to Job Growth

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In 2016, Florida’s economy outperformed the nation in part because of better job creation, according to several economists who spoke to a standing-room-only crowd of about 500 Realtors® at the 2017 Florida Real Estate Trends event last week during Florida Realtors® Mid-Winter Business Meetings.

National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that the pace of U.S. home sales in 2016 at 5.5 million was “the best in a decade.” Since that’s still nowhere near the 7.2 million sales peak in 2006, however, it leaves room for continued growth in 2017. And while interest rates are trending higher, it hasn’t had a dampening effect on home sales.

“A 4.2 percent mortgage rate is still a great rate,” he said. “As long as we’re around the 4 to even 5 percent mortgage rate, home sales are likely to stay on pace. As mortgage rates rise, job creation – which Florida excels at – could be a great neutralizer and good for home sales. In fact, Florida is outperforming the country because of better job creation.”

Other speakers who shared their views on 2017 included Dr. Elliot Eisenberg, a nationally known economist and a former senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB); Michael Johnston, Florida regional sales manager, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage; Dr. Julie Harrington, director of Florida State University’s Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis; and Dr. Brad O’Connor, chief economist for Florida Realtors.

“The good news, here in Florida, you’re in the right place,” Eisenberg said. “The South is the right division to be in – the economic recovery here has been much more robust. Florida is doing fine economically, unemployment is OK and foreclosures are diminishing.”

He agreed with Yun that while mortgage rates will continue to rise this year – albeit slowly – the markets will be fine as long as jobs are being created.

“Housing is improving, but in fits and starts,” Eisenberg said. “There’s not enough inventory of homes for sale, and builders aren’t building, especially at the entry-level. Bigger houses are being built, but it’s not profitable for builders to construct more affordable homes.”

He cited worker shortages, burdensome land-use regulations and costs – land, labor and regulation –  as some of the constraints homebuilders face when it comes to building entry-level homes. “We have to try a myriad of solutions, but getting the land costs down and easing land-use regulations will be the single most important factor in solving this issue,” he said.

According to Eisenberg, forces at work in Florida and across the U.S. that are dampening real estate sales include:

Low inventory – December 2016 data, which is just a few days old, shows existing single-family home inventory nationwide at a 3.6 months’ supply; in Florida, it’s at a 3.9-months’ supply. A 6-months’ supply is generally considered a market that’s balanced between buyers and sellers.

New model of renting – Six million single-family units have been taken off the market because institutional investors snapped up so many homes during the Great Recession and created a new method of renting.

Mortgage rate lock – Many people don’t want to sell and lose the really low mortgage rate they’re currently paying.

When it comes to financing, lenders are in a technology race to provide a digital, user-friendly experience that makes the mortgage process easier for the customer, said Michael Johnston, Florida regional sales manager for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.

“Today, 42 percent of homebuyers are millennials,” he said, “and with 92 million more millennials coming up, it will be an even bigger part of the housing market over the next five years. A recent survey found that 93 percent of those age 18-34 intend to buy a house sometime in their future. Millennials are always online, so creating a digital mortgage experience for them is critical.”

Johnston shared research showing millennials value the expertise of Realtor professionals during the homebuying process. “While they will go online to do home shopping, they do want to consult a trusted advisor along the way,” he added.

The condominium market is an important part of the overall real estate market and often offers an affordable option for buyers, according to Johnston. “In Florida, the condo market is healthy and robust,” he said. “Condos make up 28 percent of all home sales in Florida; nationally, it’s 12 percent.”

Looking at all of 2016, Florida Realtors Chief Economist Brad O’Connor said the statewide existing homes market remained stable but was also relatively “flat,” though part of the reason for that was the comparison as “2015 was a pretty darn good year, sales-wise.”

He also pointed out that a shortage of housing inventory in markets across the state, particularly around the $200,000 price range and under, is impacting closed sales and putting pressure on median prices. Another factor: Sales of distressed properties continue to fall.

“In 2015, 10 percent of Florida’s housing inventory was distressed at the end of each month,” O’Connor said. “This past year, it’s been 5 percent, and it’s going to keep going down into 2017.”

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors® was the lead sponsor for the 2017 Florida Real Estate Trends event; co-sponsors included the Orlando Regional Realtor® Association, Realtors® Association of the Palm Beaches, MidFlorida MLS and the Royal Palm Coast Realtor® Association.

Florida Realtors® serves as the voice for real estate in Florida. It provides programs, services, continuing education, research and legislative representation to its 165,000 members in 55 boards/associations. Florida Realtors® Media Center website is available at http://media.floridarealtors.org.

Boom or Bust: What Lies Ahead for Florida’s Economy in 2017?

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Get the experts’ take in the latest edition of Florida’s Bottom Line

Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater today announced the release of the 2017 winter edition of Florida’s Bottom Line, his award-winning, quarterly online economic magazine focused on providing the latest news and insightful analysis on Florida’s economic and financial health. The winter edition highlights Florida’s future economic environment, the stripping of federal regulatory burdens, and what the expansion of Florida’s residential and visiting population mean for the state. In addition, an inside look into Florida’s business rent tax is offered in this edition of Florida’s Bottom Line. Florida’s Bottom Line 1:19.2017
“Florida’s economy is on the right track, and we’re entering 2017 well-positioned to continue making positive strides,” said CFO Atwater. “As we embark on this new year, it’s important to recognize that Florida’s economic future will continue to be shaped by the perseverance of Florida’s hardworking business leaders and workforce.”
In addition to CFO Atwater, this edition of Florida’s Bottom Line features guest articles from economic leaders who have offered their insight and opinion on the future of Florida’s economy. Here’s what they have to say about Florida’s 2017 economic outlook:
“Since November of 2010 Florida has created 1.27 million jobs and in 2017 the state is well poised to add to this total,” said Sean Snaith, PhD, Director of University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness. “Florida has managed this economic performance in the midst of a historically weak U.S. economic expansion.”
“Regulations were a central theme of the 2016 election,” said Patrick McLaughlin, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center. “While the new administration’s timeline for implementing regulatory changes remains unclear, the likelihood of any changes occurring in the administration’s first year largely depend on the legal mechanisms at its disposal. Many regulatory policies may be quickly abandoned with a stroke of the pen.”
“Florida is a national leader in quality roads and bridges, is home to some of the world’s busiest airports, an expanding rail system, 15 seaports, and the best space port on earth—all of which support international trade,” said Mark Wilson, President and CEO of the Florida Chamber of Commerce. “By 2030, Florida is projected to grow by six million residents, and welcome 150 million visitors every year. Now is the time to focus on the future—not only to avoid the headaches and costs that come with roadway congestion, but also to increase market share and job opportunities.”
“Florida can boast about a lot of things. We are a premier tourist destination with an improving education system and an attractive economic climate that creates thousands of jobs every year,” said Dominic Calabro, President and CEO of Florida TaxWatch. “However, the state can do more to improve the business climate to benefit both businesses and workers. One critical improvement is to reduce or eliminate the Business Rent Tax (BRT).”
To view the latest edition of Florida’s Bottom Line, and to subscribe to the publication, visit http://www.MyFloridaCFO.com/FloridasBottomLine/.