Consumer sentiment among Floridians fell three-tenths of a point to 97.8 from a revised figure of 98.1 in September. Similarly, the University of Michigan’s nationwide index of consumer sentiment decreased in October. [Read more…] about Consumer sentiment declines for third month in a row, but the economy is strong
Florida consumer sentiment
Florida consumer sentiment rebounds upward in June
Consumer sentiment among Floridians rose 2.1 points in June to 96.4, changing course after two months of decline.
Among the five components that make up the index, four increased and one decreased.
Survey respondents’ perceptions of their personal financial situation now compared with a year ago showed the greatest increase, up 6.4 points from 85.5 to 91.9. “Importantly, all Floridians share these perceptions, independent of their age, gender or income,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket household item such as an appliance increased 1.7 points to 102, although readings vary across demographic groups. “In particular, positive perceptions are seen among women, those under age 60 and those with an annual income of $50,000 and over, while they are negative among men, seniors and those with income under $50,000,” Sandoval said.
Expectations of personal finances a year from now rose 3.5 points to 104.8. “Overall, Floridians appear to be more optimistic. Most of the increase is due to the positive perceptions of consumers’ current and future personal finance situation,” Sandoval said.
Views on the future of the U.S. economy were mixed: Expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the upcoming year dropped 1.8 points to 91.8; however, anticipation of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years ticked up eight-tenths of a point from 90.8 to 91.6.
The labor market in Florida has continued to strengthen, adding jobs on a monthly basis. Since the beginning of 2017, the unemployment rate has declined steadily. The Florida unemployment rate in May was 4.3 percent, down two-tenths of a percentage point from April. As of May, the number of jobs added statewide over the last year came to 228,000, a 2.7 percent increase that outpaces the nation’s job growth rate of 1.6 percent.
The positive outlook of Floridians may also be fueled by cheaper prices at the gas pump, the lowest in over a decade going into the Fourth of July travel season. Having a few extra dollars left over after each fill-up may contribute to feelings of financial well-being.
Nationwide, economic activity has increased and inflation has declined on a 12-month basis. As a result, last month the Federal Reserve decided to raise the federal funds target range to between 1 percent and 1.25 percent.
“This change will eventually be transmitted to other interest rates, including car loans, credit cards and mortgages,” Sandoval said. “The evolution of consumer perceptions as to whether it is a good time to buy a big household item in the following months will be an important indicator in assessing how the increased interest rates affect consumption.”
Conducted June 1-28, the UF study reflects the responses of 479 individuals who were reached on cellphones, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.
Details of this month’s survey can be found at http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/csi-data.
Florida consumer sentiment in April drops from record high
Consumer sentiment among Floridians in April dropped 3.5 points to 95.7 from a record-high reading of 99.2 in March, according to the latest University of Florida consumer survey.
Despite the ups and downs in the index during the first four months of 2017, consumers are overall more optimistic compared with those same months in 2016.
Among the five components that make up the index, one increased and four decreased.
Perceptions of one’s personal financial situation now compared with a year ago rose 2.2 points, from 88.7 to 90.9. This is the highest reading for this component since February 2005.
Opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a major household item such as an appliance dropped 1.9 points, from 103.4 to 101.5.
Taken together, these two components represent Floridians’ perceptions about current economic conditions.
“Despite the decrease in one of the two components that address present conditions, current perceptions have remained stable in recent months, reflecting the favorable economic conditions that have prevailed in the state,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
The three components that measure expectations of future economic conditions all shifted downward between March and April.
Expectations of personal finances a year from now declined 2.3 points, from 107.5 to 105.2. Anticipated U.S. economic conditions over the next year decreased 6.8 points, from 99.3 to 92.5. Finally, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years showed the greatest decline, from 96.8 to 88.2, an 8.6 points change.
“Most of the pessimism in this month’s index figure comes from the unfavorable expectations about the future state of the economy. Notably, these perceptions are shared by all Floridians with the sole exception of those with an income level over $50,000,” Sandoval said.
“It is worth noting that those with incomes of $50,000 and over display favorable perceptions in all five components of the index. In particular, they have a very strong positive expectation about their personal financial situation one year from now. This might be a result of the proposed tax reform announced by the federal government, which is expected to slash the tax rates on corporations and high-income individuals,” Sandoval said.
Economic data in Florida continue to be generally positive. In particular, Florida’s labor market continued to expand in March. Over the last year, 246,100 jobs have been added in Florida, a 3 percent increase. The industry sector gaining most jobs was education and health services, followed by professional and business services. There were also increases in the trade, transportation and utilities sector, as well as the construction industry.
A particular bright spot: Florida’s unemployment rate in March dropped two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.8 percent, which is the lowest rate since December 2007, right at the beginning of the Great Recession.
Conducted April 1-27, the UF study reflects the responses of 568 individuals who were reached on cellphones, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.
Details of this month’s survey can be found at http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/csi-data.
Writer: Colleen Porter, [email protected]
Florida consumer sentiment in March hits pre-recession level
Consumer sentiment among Floridians rose last month to the highest level in 15 years, according to the latest University of Florida consumer survey.
The reading of 99 in March was the highest since March 2002 and the second-highest since November 2000. The 5.2-point increase in March followed a dip in February, which ended the month with a revised reading of 93.8.
All five of the components that make up the index increased.
Perception of one’s personal financial situation now compared with a year ago ticked up four-tenths of a point, from 88.1 to 88.5. Perceptions as to whether now is a good time to buy a major household item such as an appliance rose 3.8 points, from 99.7 to 103.5.
“The increase in these two components shows that current economic conditions improved among Floridians in March,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “In particular, women and those under age 60 displayed more optimistic perceptions.”
Expectations of personal finances a year from now rose 7.8 points from 99.5 to 107.3. Opinions of anticipated U.S. economic conditions over the next year increased 7.2 points, from 92.0 to 99.2. Similarly, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose 7.2 points, from 89.5 to 96.7.
“Overall, Floridians are far more optimistic in March than the previous month. The gain in March’s index came mainly from consumers’ future expectations about the economy. Importantly, these views are shared by all Floridians, independent of their demographic characteristics and socioeconomic status,” Sandoval said. “These expectations are particularly strong among women and those with an income under $50,000.”
Consumer sentiment at the national level also remained positive in March at 96.9, according to the University of Michigan’s survey of consumers.
In Florida, consumer sentiment may have been lifted by good economic news. The Florida labor market has continued expansion, adding jobs on a monthly basis for more than six years.
The unemployment rate in Florida remained unchanged at 5 percent in February, the most recent figure available. Over the last year, the unemployment rate has remained stable: Between March and December 2016, the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent, and since January the rate has been 5 percent.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Florida ranked third of all states in the country in personal income growth, with a growth rate of 4.9 percent in personal income between 2015 and 2016. The main contributor to this change came from net earnings, which includes wages, salaries and supplements but excluding contributions for government social insurance.
Nationwide, economic activity and the labor market has continued to expand and strengthen, and household spending has risen. As a consequence, last month the Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise the federal funds rate to a target range of 0.75 to 1 percent.
“In general, the economic outlook is very positive and the positive sentiment will aid the economy to expand even further,” Sandoval said.
Conducted March 1-30, the UF study reflects the responses of 507 individuals who were reached on cellphones, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.
Details of this month’s survey can be found at http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/csi-data.
Writer: Colleen Porter, [email protected]
