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New UNF Poll Shows Sen. Bill Nelson Leading Gov. Rick Scott in 2018 Senate Election

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The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll that reveals Sen. Bill Nelson in the lead for the upcoming Senate election, with Gov. Rick Scott trailing close behind. The survey also shows that President Trump’s job approval rating has risen some since last fall.

The poll, comprised of Florida registered voters, shows that of likely voters in 2018, 48 percent plan to vote for Nelson, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election for U.S. Senate, while 42 percent plan to vote for Scott, the Republican. Of those likely voters, 7 percent don’t know who their choice will be.

Regarding the U.S. House of Representatives, when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 42 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for the Democratic candidate, 40 percent would plan to vote for the Republican candidate and 14 percent didn’t know.

“Even though it appears Nelson has a reasonable lead in the poll, the election results will ultimately get determined by who shows up in November,” said Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. “Historically, Republicans have enjoyed a turnout advantage in midterms, but with the current mood of the country, and a large number of Republican retirements, Democrats are optimistic about an impending blue wave.”

Of registered voters who were asked whether they approve or disapprove of the way Nelson is handling his job as senator, 52 percent of registered voters claim to somewhat or strongly approve, with only 20 percent somewhat or strongly disapproving. Notably, 26 percent of voters expressed they don’t know how Nelson is handling his job. When asked about the way Scott is handling his job as Florida governor, 63 percent reported to strongly or somewhat approve, with 31 percent disapproving either somewhat or strongly.

“Both senate candidates have net positive job approval ratings of 32 percentage points,” said Binder. “This high level of job approval is very unusual and is going to lead to a hotly contested election.”

When asked about how Sen. Marco Rubio is handling his job, 55 percent strongly or somewhat approve, compared to the 35 percent who reported to somewhat or strongly disapprove.

When asked about President Donald Trump’s job approval rating, 43 percent of the overall sample strongly or somewhat approve of how he’s handling his job, with 53 percent disapproving somewhat or strongly. A large amount of registered Democrats—87 percent—disapprove of Trump, while only 16 percent of registered Republicans disapprove. On the contrary, Trump held 81 percent job approval among registered Republicans, compared to 40 percent approval among nonpartisans and a dismal 10 percent job approval among registered Democrats.

“Most presidents would consider 43 percent approval and net negative 10 percentage points a troubling number, but Trump’s approval is up 6 percentage points from his approval level in October, and his net negatives have improved by 12 percentage points,” noted Binder.

In light of the recent investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election, when asked about the way Robert Mueller is handling his job as Special Counsel for the United States Department of Justice, 40 percent of registered voters somewhat or strongly approve, 28 percent of voters somewhat or strongly disapprove and 29 percent of voters don’t know how he’s handling his job.

“Even though Mueller is acting in a legal capacity, and has a 12-percentage point net positive job approval, there are partisan divisions as Democrats are much more supportive than Republicans in their views on Mueller,” said Binder.

For details about the methodology of the survey and additional crosstabs by partisanship, sex, education, race and age, click here.

Poll Shows Floridians Overwhelmingly Support Adding Victims’ Rights to Florida Constitution

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If Vote Were Held Today, a Victims’ Bill of
Rights Would Pass With 85 Percent Approval

A new poll released today shows an overwhelming number of Floridians support enumerating victims’ rights in the Florida Constitution, the basis of a proposal known as Marsy’s Law. The survey, commissioned by Marsy’s Law for Florida, found 87 percent of likely voters believe victims should have, at the very least, the same protections in the state constitution as those given to those accused of committing crimes. Support for the measure crosses party lines with 83 percent of Democrats, 86 percent of Independents and 92 percent of Republicans in favor of including victims’ rights in the state constitution.
When asked if crime victims should have the constitutional right to speak at the bail or sentencing hearing of the accused or convicted, support rises to 89 percent. Seventy-seven (77) percent believe that victims of crimes should have the constitutional right to be consulted by the state attorney before plea bargain negotiations can begin. When asked if we should change the current system so victims of crime have their rights protected in the state constitution versus the opposing view that victims’ rights are already protected by local state attorneys, Florida voters favor changing the system by a 70 percent to 20 percent margin.
Finally, when read proposed ballot language and informed of the background behind Marsy’s Law, 85 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for a constitutional amendment that guarantees victims’ rights in the Florida Constitution. A constitutional amendment shows strong support, regardless of political affiliation, with 83 percent of Democrats, 87 percent of Independents and 88 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for the measure.
In the coming weeks, the Florida Constitution Revision Commission (CRC) will consider Proposal 5, filed by Commissioner Chris Nocco, creating the Crime Victims’ Bill of Rights. If approved by the CRC, it will appear on the 2018 General Election ballot.
“The Victims’ Bill of Rights empowers victims within the state of Florida,” said Commissioner Nocco. “We had no doubt that citizens would be very supportive of this proposal to give these once voiceless victims the ability to be heard.”
“This poll shows Floridians are of the same mindset as voters in other states who have shown support for Marsy’s Law,” said Marsy’s Law for Florida State Director Greg Ungru. “The Crime Victims’ Bill of Rights is a true bipartisan effort that brings together law enforcement, civic leaders, elected officials and citizens from every walk of life. I believe, if approved by the CRC and placed on the ballot, victims’ will finally have their constitutional rights established in Florida.”
Conducted by OnMessage, Inc., the survey interviewed 700 likely voters in Florida from October 1 to October 3. The survey has a +/- 3.7 percent margin of error.
Background on Marsy’s Law for Florida
While most states provide crime victims with clear and enforceable constitutional-level protections, Florida remains one of only 15 that does not. Once adopted by the voters, Marsy’s Law will grant constitutional rights to crime victims on par with those provided to the accused and convicted, including:
Marsy’s Law Rights
Marsy’s Law will guarantee that victims receive certain rights in a number of important ways including:

  • informing victims and their families about their rights and the services available to them,
  • giving them the right to receive notification of proceedings and major developments in a criminal case,
  • protecting their safety by notifying them in a timely manner regarding changes to the offender’s custodial status,
  • allowing victims and their families to exercise their right to be present – and heard – at court proceedings,
  • providing input to the prosecutor before a plea agreement is finalized; and
  • establishing the right to restitution from the convicted.

About Marsy’s Law
Marsy’s Law is named after Marsalee “Marsy” Nicholas of California who was stalked and killed by her ex-boyfriend in 1983. Only one week after her death, Marsy’s mother and brother, Henry T. Nicholas, walked into a grocery store where they were confronted by the accused murderer. The family, who had just come from a visit to Marsy’s grave, was unaware that the accused had been released on bail.  In an effort to honor his sister, Dr. Nicholas, co-founder of Broadcom Corporation, has made it his mission to give victims and their families constitutional protections and equal rights.  He formed Marsy’s Law for All in 2009, providing expertise and resources to victims’ rights organizations nationwide.
Since California’s passage of the Victims’ Bill of Rights Act of 2008, Marsy’s Law legislation has also succeeded in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Illinois.